With warmer months approaching but energy bills rising, should we be expecting cheaper bills in the coming months?

At a glance:

• AEMC’s annual price analysis predicts a drop in power prices.
• These costs are expected to drop for two years in a row.
• Find the cheapest energy plans in your state or area by comparing energy plans.

Australian Energy Market Commission has said that consumers will receive cheaper energy plans in 2023 due to new solar (1,667 megawatts) and wind (2,580 megawatts) generation capacity entering the electricity grid.

AEMC’s annual price analysis predicts a drop in power prices until 2021-22, followed by an increase in 2022-23. However, prices were predicted to be lower in 2023. According to the latest annual residential electricity price trends report from the AEMC, households in 2023 will pay around $120 less for electricity than they do today (or 9% less).

Overall report summary:

• As more generation capacity enters the system and gas prices remain low, wholesale costs were forecast to decline by $150 between FY19/20 and FY22/23.
• By FY22/23, network costs are also likely to drop by around $4. Transmission costs are expected to rise by $13, while distribution and metering costs are expected to drop by $17.
• As more renewable energy generation comes online, environmental costs will decrease by $5 by FY22/23. The costs are expected to drop for two years in a row after mostly increasing over the past decade.

Energy price outlook

Electricity prices in South East Queensland

In comparison to the other National Electricity Market states, SE Queensland will experience the greatest savings over the next three years. Prices are expected to drop by $126. According to estimations, prices will drop on average by 5% annually or by 14% (an overall decrease of $190). A typical South East Queensland household’s annual bill is estimated to be $1,100 by June 2024 based on the AEMC’s modelling. A 10 percent drop in grid electricity prices will lead to the lowest power costs in a decade and a lower cost per kWh than in 2010/11.

Electricity price in New South Wales

Despite coal station closures, NSW electricity bills are expected to decline over the coming years. Estimates suggest that energy prices will drop by 2%, or about $30, every year (a drop of 0.8% on average). Prices will rise by $90 (7.2%) with the closure of the Liddell power station on 22/23. However, the increase in prices will be temporary if the forecast holds true.

Electricity prices in Victorian

Victoria’s electricity bills also show a positive trend. Household electricity bills are expected to fall by nearly $100 over the next three years. It is estimated that overall prices will fall by 15%, or about $170 (a 5.3% drop on an annual basis), according to the report. Based on AEMC modelling, wholesale electricity prices in Victoria will be slashed by 39% or $207 by 2024 due to the flood of renewables and battery storage.

Electricity prices in South Australia

South Australian households are expected to save $35 on their electricity bills over the next three years. Price declines are estimated to total 11% or just over $200 (a decrease of 3.7% annually). Wholesale electricity prices will be cut across the nation by large-scale renewables, rooftop solar, and battery storage, offsetting network cost inflation.

Electricity prices in the ACT

ACT electricity prices are expected to rise by 2% or $45 annually (a 0.7% increase on average). 4% or $70 is estimated to fall in Tasmanian electricity prices overall (year-over-year) with an average drop of 1.2%)

Power price trends are set to decline, which is good news if the AEMC price modelling and predictions are correct. Worldwide events and other factors can affect these predicted trends and pricing. Regardless of whether the prices decline or not, the key to maximising the savings on offer is comparing your energy prices regularly against a variety of energy plans offered in your area.

Find the cheapest energy plans from our panel of leading energy suppliers in your state by comparing energy plans with Select & Switch. Using the Select & Switch free online energy comparison tool, you can compare electricity plans based on your energy usage and determine which one will be most cost-effective for you.